Chapter 2 Theory

Abstract

Outcomes theory incorporates a systems approach to planning, and builds evaluation and impact assessment into the management process. It corresponds with the approach taken in the companion book Event Evaluation and particularly with the Event Compass as a comprehensive approach to planning and evaluation. To put it into IA practice, a logic model or theory of change model is required.
The nature of evidence is then considered. It is of critical importance when it comes to measurement and the use of indicators, as the question of “what constitutes acceptable evidence?” will frequently arise in the undertaking and interpretation of impact assessments.
The forces-pressures-state-impacts-response model (FPSIR) is then presented. It provides a cyclical framework in which specific types of impact can be addressed by examining general forces and more specific trends that lead to pressures on the environment, economy or society. Specific impacts can then be viewed within a context that examines causes, followed by consideration of how people and systems respond to impacts.
The chapter ends with another planning model, Limits of Acceptable Change, which introduces several interrelated concepts that impact assessors need to be familiar with: capacity; tipping points; cumulative impacts; risk and uncertainty; precautionary principle.
Why planning models? Evaluation and impact assessment are seldom if ever conducted without reference to plans, strategies or policies. The results have to be used in practice, plus some contribution to theory is always possible. When goals are specified and indicators determined in advance, evaluators and impact assessors know what they are looking for.